Bitcoin’s sudden rebound keeps the $100,000 threshold in reach by year-end, Standard Chartered says

Bitcoin's sudden rebound keeps the $100,000 threshold in reach by year-end, Standard Chartered says
  • Bitcoin could still reach $100,000 by the end of 2024 after rallying this week, Standard Chartered said.
  • The token jumped 11.7% to a new high for the year, reaching above $47,500.
  • That’s as spot ETF flows have significantly slowed, and should no longer be a headwind.

After failing to meet market hopes in January, bitcoin has surged sharply to its highest level in 2024.

The token gained 11.7% through the week, reaching a price of around $47,565. This change of fortune keeps the $100,000 price target achievable by the year’s end, Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick wrote on Friday.

The Head of FX Research has long held bullish expectations for the cryptocurrency and anticipates that the price will reach $200,000 by end-2025. Part of his forecast is built on optimism around the fresh bitcoin spot ETFs, which were approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission on January 10.

At the time, Kendrick argued that these new investment vehicles should drive massive inflows into the crypto sector, providing an outlet for more traditional financial players to join the space.

Instead, bitcoin slumped heavily after the spot ETFs hit the market, and the cryptocurrency’s price bottomed at around $39,450 by January’s end.

Most have cited the Grayscale ETF’s heavy outflows as a factor for bitcoin’s mixed performance. The investment vehicle was converted from a pre-existing bitcoin trust fund, which meant it already held billions worth of bitcoin before having to compete with 10 other ETFs. This led to a surge of outflows, with the GBTC fund losing $2.5 billion in its worst week, a JPMorgan note reported.

Comparison of bitcoin spot ETF flows
JPMorgan Flows and Liquidity, February 7 2024

But this has significantly slowed, which could be a possible reason bitcoin has shot back up, Kendrick suggested.

“I think it is simply down to the changing flow dynamics in the new US ETFs.” he wrote in a Friday email, reacting to bitcoin’s upside. He added: “GBTC selling seems to have slowed (to an average of USD59mn a day this week) while flows into the other ETFs continue to be strong (average USD244mn a day this week).”

That’s enough to achieve the conditions needed for Kendrick’s year-end price forecast. Previously, he outlined that between 437,000 and 1.32 million new bitcoins should eventually be held by spot ETFs, which could make a $200,000 price point possible. As outflows stop completely, net inflows should be able to reach $50 billion to $100 billion.

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